Ukraine and the United States: A Proposed Natural Resources Deal
A Framework for Future Cooperation
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has described a proposed deal with the United States on natural resources as a “framework” for future cooperation. The deal, according to a draft obtained by CNN, does not include explicit security guarantees for Ukraine, which has been a key concern for Kyiv amid the ongoing war with Russia. Zelensky emphasized that the agreement provides a foundation for further discussions, particularly during his anticipated meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. While the deal outlines economic cooperation, it falls short of committing the U.S. to specific security assurances, leaving many questions unanswered about Ukraine’s long-term protection.
Economic and Strategic Goals of the Deal
The proposed deal focuses on the establishment of a jointly managed “Reconstruction Investment Fund,” aimed at attracting investments to develop Ukraine’s natural resources, including hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and rare earth minerals. Under the agreement, Ukraine would contribute 50% of its revenues from these resources to the fund, excluding current budget revenues. The fund would be overseen by representatives from both the U.S. and Ukraine, with detailed governance terms to be negotiated in a subsequent agreement. Zelensky views this deal as a potential “big success” and a stepping stone for future security guarantees, though he acknowledged that concrete steps on security remain unresolved.
Public Skepticism and Concerns in Ukraine
The proposal has sparked skepticism among Ukrainians, who are wary of granting the U.S. access to their natural resources without clear reciprocity. Reports that the initial U.S. proposal demanded a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s rare earths and other minerals were met with outrage, with Zelensky rejecting the terms as akin to “selling” his country. While some conditions appear to have been revised, trust in the deal remains tenuous. Many Ukrainians, including pensioner Oleksandra Zdorenko, expressed initial disbelief at the terms but now place their trust in the government, believing that Zelensky and his administration would not harm the country’s interests.
Addressing Financial and Security Expectations
Zelensky made it clear that Ukraine would not accept any form of debt repayment as part of the deal, calling it a harmful precedent. “I will not accept [even] 10 cents of debt repayment in this deal. Otherwise, it will be a precedent,” he stated. This stance comes as Trump has criticized the U.S.’s financial support for Ukraine, falsely claiming that the U.S. has given Kyiv $350 billion since February 2022. In reality, the total U.S. assistance is around $120 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Trump has also falsely alleged that Europe’s support for Ukraine is in the form of loans, a claim corrected by French President Emmanuel Macron, who emphasized that much of the aid is in the form of grants and guarantees.
Ukraine’s Gratitude and Future Considerations
Despite the financial debates, Zelensky has expressed Ukraine’s gratitude for U.S. support, acknowledging the critical role American aid has played in the country’s resistance to Russia’s invasion. However, he has vowed to be “very direct” in discussions with Trump, seeking clarity on whether the U.S. will continue its support for Ukraine. If U.S. aid falters, Zelensky suggested that Ukraine could explore alternative funding sources, including the potential use of frozen Russian assets, estimated to be worth around $300 billion, to purchase weapons directly from the U.S. This option underscores Ukraine’s determination to remain self-sufficient while navigating uncertain international alliances.
A Delicate Balance of Interests
The proposed natural resources deal highlights the delicate balance of interests between Ukraine and the United States. While the agreement offers economic opportunities and a framework for future collaboration, its lack of explicit security guarantees leaves Ukraine in a vulnerable position. Zelensky’s emphasis on trust and the need for further discussions underscores the complexity of the relationship and the challenges of ensuring Ukraine’s long-term stability. As the deal moves forward, the outcome will depend on whether both nations can align their economic and strategic goals while addressing the deep-seated concerns of the Ukrainian people.
