Ecuador’s Presidential Election: A Nation at a Crossroads
Ecuador is bracing for a pivotal presidential election, its second in just 18 months, as the country grapples with an unprecedented security crisis and deepening economic challenges. Voters will head to the polls on Sunday to decide whether to continue with incumbent President Daniel Noboa, who has taken a hardline approach to combating crime, or opt for his main rival, leftist politician Luisa González, who promises a different path forward. The election comes at a critical juncture for Ecuador, which is struggling to stabilize its political landscape, tackle rampant insecurity, and address an energy crisis that has left millions struggling with widespread blackouts.
The Rise of Daniel Noboa and His Hardline Agenda
Daniel Noboa, a 37-year-old businessman and son of a banana tycoon, was elected in 2023 to complete the term of his predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, who resigned amid political turmoil. Noboa’s rise to power was nothing short of meteoric; he emerged as the dark horse candidate of the 2023 election, defeating González in the second round of voting. Despite initially positioning himself as a “center-left” candidate, Noboa has adopted a tough-on-crime stance, declaring war on what he describes as “terrorist groups” that have overrun the country’s streets and prisons. His tenure has been marked by a series of crises, from declaring states of emergency to deploying military units to combat gang activity.
Noboa’s aggressive approach to crime has drawn both admiration and criticism. He has overseen the construction of a new maximum-security prison after a high-profile criminal escaped last year and has taken drastic measures, such as ordering the controversial arrest of former Vice President Jorge Glas from the Mexican embassy in Quito. Glas, who is twice convicted of corruption, had been seeking asylum in Mexico at the time of the raid. Noboa’s policies have also been shaped by his close ties to the United States, with whom he has ratified military cooperation agreements. He has even followed in the footsteps of former U.S. President Donald Trump by imposing tariffs on Mexican goods.
Luisa González: The Leftist Challenger with a Vision for Change
Noboa’s main rival, Luisa González, is a close ally of former leftist President Rafael Correa, who remains a powerful figure in Ecuador’s politics despite being sentenced to eight years in prison for bribery in 2020. Running on a platform to “Revive Ecuador,” González has vowed to address the country’s drug trade with the same vigor as Noboa but has criticized his approach as overly militaristic. She has proposed eliminating SNAI, the agency that currently manages Ecuador’s prisons, and investing in facial recognition technology to curb crime. González has also called for the reestablishment of the Ministry of Justice, which was dissolved in 2018 to cut public spending.
While González’s campaign has tapped into nostalgia for the Correa era, she has sought to distinguish herself as her own leader. “I’m the president of my party,” she declared in a CNN en Español interview. “I’m the one leading my campaign – it’s my government plan, and my plans for the public. So who will rule? It’ll be Luisa.” Her message has resonated with many Ecuadorians who are disillusioned with Noboa’s harsh tactics and the country’s spiraling instability.
The Crime Wave and Ecuador’s Role in the Global Drug Trade
Ecuador’s security crisis has deepened dramatically in recent years, with the country becoming a major hub for cocaine trafficking. Located between Colombia and Peru, two of the world’s largest cocaine producers, Ecuador’s ports have become a key exit point for drugs destined for North America and Europe. This has spawned a violent crime wave, with homicide rates tripling between 2021 and 2023, according to Human Rights Watch. While Noboa’s government claims that murders dropped by 16.5% in 2024, the country remains in the grip of lawlessness.
The violence has targeted not only civilians but also political figures. In a chilling example, anti-corruption activist and presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated just days before the first round of voting in the last election. Five individuals were later imprisoned for his murder, with two alleged members of the notorious Los Lobos gang implicated. The brazen killing underscored the dangers faced by those seeking to challenge the status quo in Ecuador’s increasingly unstable political environment.
Energy Crisis and Economic Woes: A Nation in Distress
Compounding Ecuador’s security challenges is an ongoing energy crisis, exacerbated by severe droughts linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon. The country’s hydroelectric plants, which provide nearly 80% of its electricity, have been crippled, leading to widespread blackouts. In an effort to conserve power, the government has implemented rolling power cuts, some lasting up to 14 hours. While the blackouts ended in December, the energy deficit persists, with Ecuador struggling to secure electricity imports from neighboring Colombia due to regional droughts.
The energy crisis has further strained Ecuador’s already fragile economy. According to a World Bank study, more than half of the country’s jobs are informal, leaving a vast chunk of potential tax revenue uncollected. The situation is so dire that Latin America expert Isabel Chiriboga has warned that Ecuador’s economy is “teetering on the brink of collapse.” The next president will inherit a formidable challenge: steering the country through its multiple crises while restoring stability and hope to its people.
The Road Ahead: A Nation Seeking Stability and Renewal
As Ecuadorians prepare to vote, the stakes could not be higher. The election represents a
