The German federal election has brought significant shifts in the country’s political landscape, marking a decisive victory for the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). Under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU bloc secured the largest share of the vote with 28.5%, positioning Merz as the likely next chancellor of Germany. However, the election also saw a surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which achieved its best-ever result with 20.8% of the vote. This outcome has sent shockwaves across the political spectrum, as the AfD’s rise underscores growing divisions within German society. Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a historic collapse, dropping to 16.4%—its worst post-war result—while the Greens, despite losing some ground, managed to hold on with 11.6%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP), a former coalition partner, fell below the 5% threshold, effectively ejecting it from parliament.
Merz, who is poised to lead the next government, has emphasized the urgency of forming a stable coalition as quickly as possible. With only eight weeks until Easter, Merz views this period as the maximum timeframe for negotiations, though the complexity of Germany’s political landscape may complicate his efforts. The CDU/CSU leader has acknowledged that coalition talks will not be straightforward, given the fragmented nature of the Bundestag. He stressed the importance of re-establishing a functional government, noting that “the world out there is not waiting for us.” This sentiment reflects the broader challenges facing Germany, from economic pressures to the ongoing impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Merz has also used the post-election period to criticize the United States, particularly former President Donald Trump, whose administration he accused of being “largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.” Merz has pledged to prioritize European independence from the U.S., though this stance may face resistance both domestically and internationally.
The AfD’s historic result has sparked considerable concern, as it marks the far-right party’s strongest performance since its founding in 2013. Despite being excluded from mainstream coalition talks due to a longstanding “firewall” agreement among other parties, the AfD’s co-leader, Alice Weidel, has expressed optimism about the party’s future. Weidel declared that the AfD has “arrived as a party of the people” and asserted that without its inclusion, “no change of policy is possible in Germany.” Her words were echoed by co-leader Tino Chrupalla, who claimed the party has moved into the political mainstream, leaving the fringes behind. However, the AfD’s success has also prompted backlash, with anti-fascist protests breaking out in cities like Frankfurt and Berlin. These demonstrations highlight the deepening polarization within German society and the broader fears about the rise of far-right ideologies in Europe.
The election has been particularly devastating for Scholz and the SPD, which endured its worst performance since World War II. Scholz conceded the election, describing the result as “very bitter” for his party. While he remains chancellor until a new government is sworn in, Scholz made it clear that he would not participate in a CDU-led coalition, nor would he negotiate on behalf of the SPD. His decision reflects the broader challenges facing center-left parties in Germany, which have struggled to regain traction after years of declining support. Meanwhile, Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, announced his retirement from active politics after his party’s poor showing. Lindner expressed gratitude for his 25 years in politics but acknowledged the defeat as a significant setback for the liberal party.
In a surprising twist, the hard-left Left Party (Die Linke) surpassed expectations by securing 8.8% of the vote, clearing the 5% threshold and ensuring its representation in the Bundestag. Party candidate Heidi Reichinnek expressed joy over the result, which marked a rebound for the Left Party after initial doubts about its viability. Conversely, the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) fell just short of the 5% threshold with 4.9%, failing to enter parliament despite its high-profile leadership. The Greens, while still losing votes, fared better than some of their coalition partners, with Chancellor candidate Robert Habeck acknowledging the mixed outcome. Habeck noted that the election reflected a weakening of the political center, urging all parties to reflect on their roles in this trend.
As Germany navigates this uncertain political terrain, the implications of the election extend far beyond its borders. The rise of the AfD and the decline of traditional center-left and center-right parties signal a broader shift in European politics, where populist and nationalist movements are gaining ground. Merz’s focus on European independence from the U.S. could reshape Germany’s role within the transatlantic alliance, though it remains to be seen how this vision will be received by other EU member states. Domestically, the challenge for Merz and his potential coalition partners will be to address the deepening divides within German society while outlining a clear path forward for the country. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether Germany can overcome its current political and economic challenges, or whether the rise of the far-right and the fragmentation of the political landscape will continue to destabilize the nation.
