The jailing of Mike Amesbury, a former Labour MP, for 10 weeks for assault has plunged Sir Keir Starmer into his first major political test since becoming Prime Minister. Amesbury, 55, who represented the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby, now faces a recall petition, but the pressure on him to resign immediately is immense. His imprisonment has set off alarm bells within the Labour Party, which swiftly condemned his actions as “completely unacceptable” and called for a new MP to represent the constituency. A party spokesperson emphasized that the residents of Runcorn and Helsby deserve better representation, signaling Labour’s eagerness to move on from the scandal.
However, the timing of a potential by-election remains uncertain. If Amesbury decides to appeal his sentence, the process could be delayed, as a by-election cannot be called until all legal avenues are exhausted or he voluntarily steps down. This uncertainty has created a challenging landscape for Sir Keir Starmer, who is already grappling with the fallout of Amesbury’s imprisonment. The constituency, which Amesbury won with a seemingly comfortable majority of 14,696 votes in the July 2024 general election, is now poised to become a battleground. Interestingly, it was not the Conservatives but Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, that came second in the last election, adding an extra layer of complexity to the situation.
The rise of Reform UK has been a growing concern for Labour, and the current opinion polls suggest that Farage’s party is gaining momentum, even surpassing Labour in some surveys. This has raised the stakes for Sir Keir, as a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby could potentially result in a humiliating defeat for Labour. Reform UK’s chairman, Zia Yusuf, has been vocal in calling for Amesbury’s immediate resignation, arguing that the constituents should not have to wait six weeks for a recall petition to take effect. “The great people of Runcorn deserve far better than waiting six weeks for a recall petition to take place,” Yusuf said. “We call on Mike Amesbury to do the honourable thing and resign immediately.”
The Conservatives, on the other hand, appear to be in disarray over the potential by-election. Despite their internal chaos, party headquarters has begun the process of selecting a candidate, with an urgent call for applications. A letter from the party’s candidates team invited potential candidates to apply, emphasizing the importance of having ties to the constituency. The deadline for applications is Tuesday, 25th February, at 12 pm. However, the party’s lack of cohesion and clear strategy has raised questions about their ability to mount a strong challenge in the by-election. Meanwhile, Labour is weighing the risks and benefits of holding a swift by-election versus waiting for the local elections on 1 May or even later.
Sir Keir Starmer is acutely aware of the dangers of rushing into a by-election, having experienced a disastrous outcome in the 2021 Hartlepool by-election, where Labour suffered a humiliating defeat. The memory of that loss still lingers, and Starmer has acknowledged that he considered quitting as leader in the aftermath. The current situation in Runcorn and Helsby presents a similar risk, as a hurried poll could backfire and further dent Labour’s credibility. However, delaying the by-election also carries its own risks, as it could allow Reform UK and other opponents to capitalize on the scandal and build momentum.
The constituency of Runcorn and Helsby, dominated by the town of Runcorn, which has grown significantly since its designation as a new town in 1964, is a key battleground. With a population of around 61,000, Runcorn is the political and demographic heart of the constituency, which also includes the smaller towns of Frodsham and Helsby. Amesbury, who first became an MP in 2017 for the neighbouring seat of Weaver Vale, had served as a shadow minister under both Jeremy Corbyn and Sir Keir Starmer before stepping down from the role in 2022. His imprisonment and the ensuing by-election have thrown the constituency into the spotlight, with all eyes on how Sir Keir and Labour will navigate this challenging situation. The outcome of this by-election could have significant implications for Labour’s future and Sir Keir’s leadership.
