Germany’s chancellor-presumptive, Friedrich Merz, wasting no time after his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) secured a narrow victory in Sunday’s federal election, has openly criticized the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Merz’s comments came in response to Trump’s recent remarks about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in which Trump referred to Zelenskyy as a “modestly successful comedian” who had become a “dictator without elections” and was doing a “terrible job.” Merz interpreted these comments as a sign that the U.S. government no longer cares about the fate of Europe, calling for Germany to seek “independence” from the United States. This dramatic shift in rhetoric marks a departure from the close relationship Zelenskyy had with Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, and underscores the growing tensions between Europe and the U.S. over issues like defense and security.
Merz’s bold stance on European independence is further amplified by recent statements from U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who urged European leaders to take on a greater role in supporting Ukraine and defending against Russia. Hegseth called on European nations to contribute more to Ukraine’s defense, both in terms of lethal and nonlethal aid, and to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, up from the current 2%. This has left many European leaders, including Merz, questioning whether NATO will continue to exist in its current form. Merz warned that Europe is at a critical juncture, declaring it “five minutes to midnight” for the continent’s defense capabilities. Despite his strong rhetoric, however, Merz’s position is precarious, as his party’s 28.6% share of the vote is the lowest in its history since 1949, leaving him with a weak mandate to push through significant policy changes.
As Merz begins accelerated talks to form a centrist “grand coalition” with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the challenges ahead are significant. The CDU and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), could potentially govern with a combined 360 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag, but this would require bridging substantial differences with the SPD on key issues like foreign policy, defense, and economic strategy. One major point of contention is the question of military support for Ukraine. While SPD leader Olaf Scholz has refused to supply 500km-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, Merz has indicated he would do so if Russia continues to attack Ukrainian civilians. This divergence reflects deeper divisions within German society and within the SPD itself over the extent to which Germany should involve itself in the Ukraine conflict.
Merz’s criticism of the U.S. and his call for greater European autonomy has been interpreted by some as a strategic move to strengthen Europe’s position in the face of waning American support. analysts like Timothy Less of the University of Cambridge argue that Merz believes the U.S. is effectively abandoning Ukraine, and that providing weaponry to Ukraine would strengthen Europe’s hand in the conflict. However, this approach is fraught with challenges, as public opinion in Germany remains divided on the issue of military support for Ukraine. Additionally, the financial and geopolitical implications of propping up Ukraine’s war effort could lead to broader resistance in Europe, particularly as the costs of the conflict become clearer. Former U.S. naval commander Demetrios Grimes warns that as Europe begins to grasp the full economic burden of supporting Ukraine, as well as the long-term risks of driving Russia into closer alliances with China, North Korea, and Iran, public pressure to end the war could grow.
Despite these challenges, Merz and Scholz share some common ground, particularly on the need to make Germany’s manufacturing industry more competitive by lowering energy costs. However, their economic policies differ sharply in other areas, with Merz advocating for the reactivation of decommissioned nuclear power plants and significant cuts to the welfare state, which lies at the heart of the SPD’s economic platform. Merz has criticized the welfare system for discouraging work and creating dependency, a stance that puts him at odds with the SPD’s emphasis on social safety nets. Another major point of disagreement is Germany’s constitutional deficit ceiling, which limits spending to 0.35% of GDP. While Scholz has proposed relaxing this rule to allow for greater investment in defense and other priorities, Merz has historically been a strong defender of the ceiling, though he has hinted at being open to changes under certain conditions.
The issue of immigration has further strained relations between Merz and Scholz. Merz has called for an immediate halt to family reunification migration, which he claims has allowed 500,000 people to enter Germany without proper controls. His invitation to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to support this measure shocked Scholz, who accused him of being untrustworthy. Despite their differences, however, both leaders are under pressure to unite in the face of rising support for the AfD, which garnered 20.8% of the vote in the recent election, more than double its 2021 result. The AfD’s gains have come at the expense of both the CDU and the SPD, highlighting the need for centrist parties to work together to counter the far-right surge. Additionally, the shifting U.S. stance on European defense has created a sense of urgency for greater European cooperation, with some analysts suggesting that a stronger European defense alliance could include the United Kingdom and operate alongside NATO rather than replacing it.
In conclusion, Merz’s bold rhetoric on European independence and defense autonomy reflects a broader shift in the transatlantic relationship, as the U.S. appears to pull back from its traditional role as Europe’s security guarantor. While Merz’s vision of a stronger, more self-reliant Europe has resonated with some, the practical challenges of achieving this goal are immense. Divisions within Germany over issues like military aid to Ukraine, economic policy, and immigration threaten to undermine Merz’s ability to lead effectively, even as the pressing need for greater European unity becomes increasingly clear. As the U.S. security umbrella appears less certain, Europe is being forced to confront the realities of its own vulnerabilities and the cost of greater autonomy. Whether Merz and Scholz can put aside their differences and steer Germany—and by extension, Europe—toward a more sustainable and self-sufficient future remains to be seen.
