Germany’s recent national election has ushered in a significant shift in the political landscape, with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), emerging as the clear victors. According to provisional results, the CDU/CSU alliance secured 28.6% of the vote, positioning their leader, Friedrich Merz, as the likely next Chancellor of Germany. This outcome marks a notable turn in the country’s political direction, as Merz, a steadfast social conservative, is set to lead a nation grappling with economic challenges, European relations, and internal political dynamics.
At the heart of this political transition is Friedrich Merz, a figure whose career has been marked by both political prominence and periods of absence from the public eye. Now 69, Merz began his political journey in the late 1980s, rising to influential roles within the CDU before stepping back in 2009 to pursue a lucrative career in the private sector. His return to politics in 2022 as the leader of the CDU signals a shift towards a more conservative agenda, emphasizing traditional values and a reevaluation of Germany’s relationship with the United States and Europe. Merz’s vision for Germany includes a push for European independence and a reliable governance style, reflecting his pragmatic approach to leadership.
The election also highlighted the remarkable rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which garnered 20.8% of the vote, more than doubling its support from the previous election. This significant surge not only solidifies the AfD’s position as a major political force but also marks the strongest showing by a far-right party in Germany since World War II. The AfD’s appeal, particularly strong in eastern Germany, stems from its divisive rhetoric on immigration and the European Union. Despite Merz’s public distancing from the AfD, the party’s influence was evident when the CDU sought its support for stricter immigration policies earlier this year. This collaboration underscores the complexities of modern German politics, where traditional alliances are increasingly tested by populist sentiments.
The election results also revealed the varied fortunes of other political parties. The Left (Die Linke) saw its support nearly double, capturing 8.8% of the vote, particularly resonating in Berlin. Conversely, theGreen party and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) experienced setbacks, with the Greens dropping to 11.6% and the FDP failing to cross the 5% threshold, leading to their exclusion from parliament. The FDP’s leader, Christian Lindner, announced his departure from active politics, acknowledging defeat but expressing hope for a new beginning for Germany. These outcomes reflect a fragmented political landscape, where traditional coalitions are being challenged by emerging forces.
As Merz embarks on forming a coalition government, he faces a complex political puzzle. With the CDU/CSU holding 208 seats, Merz needs to secure at least 316 seats in the 630-member Bundestag. Despite ruling out collaboration with the AfD, Merz’s most viable option is a grand coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which would collectively hold 328 seats. Such an alliance has historical precedent, having been used four times before, including during Angela Merkel’s tenure. However, this partnership may require significant concessions from Merz, particularly on issues like taxation and immigration. Alternatively, a three-way coalition involving the Greens and The Left presents ideological challenges, given their differing stances on economic and social policies.
The AfD’s strong performance has sparked debates about its potential role in future governments. Despite Merz’s refusal to include the AfD in his coalition, the party’s leaders have asserted their right to be part of the government, framing their success as a mandate for inclusion. This stance underscores the growing influence of populist movements in Germany, challenging the traditional political order. As Merz aims to form a government by Easter 2025, the composition of his coalition will significantly influence Germany’s domestic and foreign policies, shaping its role within Europe and beyond. The election results signal a pivotal moment for Germany, as it navigates a political terrain increasingly characterized by polarization and shifting alliances.
