The week ahead promises to be pivotal for both Ukraine and the Western world, as leaders from Europe’s key nuclear powers, France and the United Kingdom, prepare to visit the White House. Their mission is to reclaim a central role in the conflict resolution process after being sidelined during recent US-Russia talks. This exclusion has left European leaders eager to reassert their influence, particularly as the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches—a brutal conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of civilian lives and raised serious allegations of war crimes against Russian President Vladimir Putin and his forces.
President Donald Trump’s recent statements have sent shockwaves through the transatlantic alliance, aligning more with Putin’s narrative while disparaging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and distorting the origins of the war. Thisshift in stance has not only strained relations with European allies but has also emboldened Putin. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are set to address these tensions during their visits. Macron’s visit coincides with the invasion’s anniversary, while Starmer’s comes at a particularly challenging time for UK-US relations, with significant disagreements over Ukraine’s plight. Their discussions will likely revolve around the proposal for a European “reassurance force,” potentially involving up to 30,000 troops to ensure security post-peace deal, though skepticism remains about the feasibility of such an agreement given the differing stance of Zelensky and Putin.
A central challenge for this proposed force is its reliance on US support, including security guarantees and military assistance, which Trump has shown little interest in providing, especially given Russia’s opposition to NATO involvement. This hesitancy underscores the growing divide in the transatlantic alliance, with Trump’s administration undermining the security assurances Europe has relied on since World War II. The strain is evident in Trump’s criticism of European defense spending and his apparent affinity for authoritarian leaders like Putin, which has dismayed European partners and threatens the cohesion of NATO.
Trump’s push for a swift peace agreement has raised concerns among Ukrainian and European leaders, who fear a potential deal might favor Russia. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, has hinted at progress in negotiations, suggesting a framework for peace. Trump’s team has suggested that labeling leaders as dictators or invaders is unproductive, implying a pragmatic approach to negotiations. However, critics argue this strategy may concede too much to Putin, jeopardizing Ukrainian sovereignty.
The opposition to Trump’s stance is strong, with figures like Senator Jack Reed accusing Trump of surrendering to Putin and failing to support Ukraine’s democratic struggle. Reed warns that Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine, threatening Eastern Europe’s stability. European leaders like Macron and Starmer aim to convince Trump of the importance of a robust stance against Putin, emphasizing that any deal must include Ukraine’s input and safeguard its interests. This principle, “no discussion about Ukraine without Ukraine,” reflects the Biden administration’s earlier approach, which Trump has increasingly disregarded.
As Macron and Starmer address these issues in Washington, they also face the challenge of meeting Trump’s demands for increased NATO defense spending. While acknowledging the need for greater European security efforts, the reality of constrained public finances looms large. The visit highlights the tension between European leaders advocating for a united front and Trump’s transactional approach to alliances, preferring autocratic ties over democratic partnerships. Macron’s efforts to influence Trump, including a previous meeting with Zelensky, have had limited success, as Trump’s recent remarks indicate a persistent misunderstanding of the conflict’s origins and dynamics.
The broader implications for the transatlantic alliance are profound, with Trump’s administration signaling a shift away from traditional alliances towards addressing challenges like China’s rise. European leaders must navigate this new reality, balancing their need for US security guarantees with their own initiatives to strengthen regional defense. As the week unfolds, the ability of Macron and Starmer to align Trump with European priorities will be crucial in determining the future of the transatlantic alliance and Ukraine’s security landscape.
