Germany’s federal elections have once again reshaped the political landscape of Europe’s largest economy, with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerging as the party with the most votes. The election, which drew significant attention both domestically and internationally, saw the CDU, under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, secure a strong mandate. Merz has already signaled his intention to move swiftly in forming a new government, setting the stage for what could be a complex and challenging period of coalition-building. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) also made history by securing its highest-ever share of the vote, finishing in second place. Meanwhile, the incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) conceded defeat, describing the outcome as “bitter” and congratulating Merz on his party’s success. The federal returning officer has released the latest results, providing a clearer picture of the political forces that will shape Germany’s future. This year, 29 political parties contested the election, down from 47 in the previous election in 2021, indicating a degree of consolidation in the political landscape.
The election has once again highlighted the fractured nature of German politics, with no single party achieving an outright majority. The CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, is the largest grouping, having secured 30% of the vote according to the latest polls. The far-right AfD, co-led by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, has capitalized on voter dissatisfaction, particularly on issues such as immigration and economic stagnation, to win around 20% of the vote. The SPD, which led the previous coalition government under Chancellor Scholz, has slumped to third place with just 15% support. The Greens, led by Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) are also key players in the election, with each securing significant, albeit smaller, shares of the vote. The Left Party, led by Ines Schwerdtner and Jan van Aken, and the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) have also won representation. These results reflect the diversity of political opinion in Germany and the challenges of forming a stable government.
The German electoral system is designed to ensure proportional representation, with voters casting two ballots: one for a local member of parliament and another for a political party. The second vote is the most critical in determining the overall distribution of seats in the Bundestag, Germany’s federal parliament. A party must secure at least 5% of the national vote to gain representation, a threshold designed to prevent extreme fragmentation. The Bundestag has a base of 598 seats, but this number can increase due to the electoral system’s compensatory mechanism. In 2021, the Bundestag had a record 733 members, but a reform in 2023 capped the number at 630 seats. The party with the most seats will nominate its candidate for chancellor, who must then secure an absolute majority in a Bundestag vote to take office. This system encourages coalition-building, as no party has won an outright majority since the 1957-1961 parliament. The CDU/CSU’s strong showing places Friedrich Merz in pole position to lead the next government, but he will need to negotiate with other parties to form a viable coalition.
The election campaign was dominated by key issues that reflect the challenges facing Germany. The economy has been a major concern, with the country struggling to recover from two years of recession. High taxes, rising unemployment, and the pressures of global competition have weighed heavily on voters’ minds. Immigration has also been a contentious issue, with the far-right AfD capitalizing on anti-immigrant sentiment. The ongoing war in Ukraine has further complicated the political landscape, with debates over energy policy, defense spending, and support for Ukraine taking center stage. The debt brake, a constitutional rule limiting government borrowing, has added to the fiscal pressures facing the next government. These issues have created a complex backdrop for the incoming government, which will need to balance competing priorities and navigate political divides to address the country’s challenges.
The chancellor candidates of the major parties represent a range of political visions and experiences. Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old leader of the CDU, is a seasoned politician who took over the party after Angela Merkel’s departure in 2021. A conservative stalwart, Merz has positioned himself as a voice of stability and continuity. Alice Weidel, the 46-year-old co-leader of the AfD, has emerged as a prominent figure on the far-right, advocating for a tough line on immigration and a more nationalist approach to policy. Olaf Scholz, the incumbent chancellor from the SPD, has sought to defend his record in office, but his party’s poor showing reflects widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of key issues. Robert Habeck, the Greens’ candidate, is a key figure in the current government, serving as vice chancellor and minister for the economy and climate action. His party’s focus on environmental and social issues has resonated with younger voters, but the Greens’ support remains limited. These leaders, along with others, will play important roles in shaping the post-election landscape, as coalition talks get underway.
The election results have set the stage for what promises to be a challenging and unpredictable period in German politics. The CDU’s strong performance gives Friedrich Merz a mandate to lead, but he will need to navigate a fragmented parliament and negotiate with other parties to form a stable government. The AfD’s surge has raised concerns about the growing influence of far-right politics in Germany, while the SPD’s decline highlights the challenges facing the center-left. The Greens and the FDP are likely to play crucial roles in any coalition, but their differing priorities could complicate negotiations. As the parties begin the process of coalition-building, the focus will shift to the policy compromises that will define the next government. The outcome of these negotiations will determine whether Germany can address its economic and social challenges and continue to play a leadership role in Europe and beyond. The election marks the beginning of a new chapter in German politics, one that is filled with both opportunities and uncertainties.
