UK tourism is grappling with a £2.8 billion shortfall, as visitor numbers remain nearly 3 million below pre-pandemic levels. Key points are outlined below.
- The annual inbound visitor numbers to the UK are approximately three million lower compared to pre-pandemic figures.
- In 2022 and 2023, the number of inbound visitors increased yet remained short of the 2019 peak of 40.9 million, with only slight improvements projected for 2024.
- The spending by tourists has declined by 8%, translating to a £2.8 billion reduction when adjusted for inflation.
- Cities such as Brighton, Newcastle, Oxford, and Bath have experienced the most significant declines in tourism.
- Factors including rising costs and the abolition of the UK’s tax-free shopping scheme are diminishing the UK’s attractiveness as a tourist destination.
The analysis reveals a troubling trend in the UK’s tourism sector, attracting nearly three million fewer overseas visitors annually compared to pre-pandemic periods. This sluggish recovery contrasts starkly with other industries that have bounced back more robustly.
Despite incremental increases in inbound visitor numbers in 2022 and 2023, the figures remain below the 2019 peak of 40.9 million. Last year, the UK welcomed 38 million tourists, with projections for 2024 showing only a minor improvement to 38.7 million, still falling short of pre-pandemic levels.
In real terms, the spending by these tourists has diminished significantly, declining by 8% and resulting in a £2.8 billion shortfall when adjusted for inflation. This financial contraction indicates a broader economic impact, affecting various sectors within the tourism industry.
Certain UK cities have borne the brunt of this downturn, with Brighton seeing a 32% decline in tourism, Newcastle down by 26%, and Oxford and Bath registering decreases of 23% and 22% respectively. Conversely, cities such as Liverpool, Edinburgh, Inverness, and Manchester have seen modest increases in visitor numbers, all under 10%.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research attributes the UK’s underwhelming performance to ‘general cautiousness surrounding international travel,’ compounded by unfavourable economic conditions, weak consumer confidence, and lingering pandemic effects. Additionally, the UK’s primary competitors in Europe are expected to experience a resurgence in visitor numbers, indicating that the UK is losing its edge as a premier tourist destination.
Rising costs have been identified as a critical factor undermining the UK’s competitiveness. Overall prices in 2024 are expected to be 23.5% higher than in 2019, with accommodation costs up by 35.8%, restaurant prices by 28.7%, and airfares surging by 47.6%. Further exacerbating the situation is the abolition of the UK’s tax-free shopping scheme, reducing the appeal for international visitors.
The shortfall in tourism revenue underscores the urgent need for strategies to revitalise the UK’s appeal to international visitors.
