Businesses across the UK are expected to benefit from a surge in consumer confidence following Keir Starmer’s election victory, amplified by key sports events.
Historical trends indicate that governmental change often stimulates economic activity. Post-election periods in 1997 and 2010 witnessed upticks in consumer sentiment and retail spending, according to research from GlobalData and PwC. This upcoming weekend promises a notable spending boost, highlighted by England’s Euro 2024 quarter-final against Switzerland and a Wimbledon doubles match featuring Emma Raducanu and Andy Murray.
GlobalData forecasts a £419.5 million economic injection from football fans alone, with 24.8 million Britons anticipated to watch the England match, many congregating in pubs and bars. Tesco forecasts robust alcohol sales, with an estimated 3.5 million items of beer and cider sold, accompanied by 1 million packs of sausages and 1.3 million punnets of strawberries. Fans are expected to consume 13.4 million pints in pubs, supporting the Three Lions.
The celebratory atmosphere is further reflected in a 36% surge in champagne searches at Ocado, potentially driven by both hopeful Labour supporters and avid football fans.
Prior to the election, nearly 36% of consumers signalled increased spending confidence with a Labour victory, a sentiment stronger among younger demographics. Kien Tan, PwC’s senior retail adviser, remarked on the positive outlook, stating, “July will get a bit of a halo effect,” referencing the current economic conditions and consumer confidence.
Labour’s anticipated policy shifts, including national insurance cuts and increases in the minimum wage and pensions, are expected to further bolster consumer spending. The retail and hospitality sectors are poised to outperform last year’s sales, which were hindered by poor weather and competition from popular films such as Barbie and Oppenheimer.
Patrick O’Brien, research director at GlobalData, highlighted renewed retail optimism, particularly among younger consumers. The anticipated mini-boom also reflects a reaction to pre-election spending dips, with households delaying major purchases amidst uncertainty.
As the new government settles in and the weather improves, the UK’s retail and hospitality sectors are set for a summer of robust spending, driven by political change and an exhilarating sports calendar.
The convergence of Keir Starmer’s election victory and a series of eagerly awaited sports events is poised to drive a notable increase in consumer spending across the UK, benefiting shops and restaurants significantly.
