The United Kingdom is facing a growing crisis as its fertility rate continues to drop, reaching a historic low of 1.44 children per woman in 2023. This trend, experts warn, is creating an economic ticking time bomb. Falling birth rates mean fewer future taxpayers, which could strain public finances, increase the burden on younger generations, and lead to weakened public services. While this may sound like a dystopian political manifesto, it is the reality Britain is inching toward as fewer children are being born. Experts like Joeli Brearley, founder of the advocacy group Pregnant Then Screwed, emphasize that the shrinking workforce and aging population will have long-term consequences, including higher taxes, smaller pensions, and fewer resources for essential services like healthcare and infrastructure.
The decline in British fertility rates is not a new phenomenon. Since peaking at 2.93 in 1964, the rate has been steadily falling. Economist Matthias Doepke of the London School of Economics explains that this downward trend is now beginning to manifest in significant economic challenges. With fewer working-age individuals to pay taxes and a growing population of retirees, the pressure on public finances is intensifying. Expenses for pensions and healthcare are rising, leaving less money for other critical services, such as fixing potholes or reducing NHS waiting lists. This demographic imbalance also gives older voters more political power, as they constitute a larger and more influential voting bloc, even though they are no longer contributing to the workforce through taxes. As a result, younger generations are left with less control over how their taxes are spent.
One of the key drivers of this trend is a growing number of young people who are choosing not to have children. According to the Centre for Population Change, 15% of Gen Z adults (aged 18-25) say they definitely will not have children, up from 5-10% of millennials at the same age. Adwoa Amankwah, a 23-year-old midwifery assistant from Manchester, is part of this growing group. She cites the cost of raising children, the difficulty of finding a suitable partner, and the challenges of navigating the current economy as reasons for her decision. “Looking after yourself is hard enough,” she says. “I can’t imagine taking on the responsibility of another human being.” This shift reflects broader societal changes, as younger generations increasingly view parenthood as a choice rather than an expectation.
For those who do want children, economic challenges are often insurmountable. The cost of childcare in the UK is prohibitively expensive, with the average annual price of full-time nursery care for a child under two reaching £14,501 in 2024. For a family with three children—the average family size in 1964, when fertility rates were highest—childcare alone would cost £43,503 a year, far exceeding the average worker’s pre-tax salary of £37,430. Mary-Ann Stephenson of the UK Women’s Budget Group calls this a “childcare crisis,” noting that many families are forced to abandon plans for more children due to financial constraints. Emily Steele, a 27-year-old from Birmingham, exemplifies this struggle. Despite her desire for three children, she and her partner have been unable to afford more than one child due to the £13,000 annual cost of nursery care for their daughter, Penny. This decision has left them emotionally torn, as they consider whether to destroy the two extra embryos they froze after using IVF.
The financial burden of raising children is compounded by inadequate parental leave policies and the high cost of housing. The UK has some of the least generous parental leave policies in Europe, with fathers entitled to just two weeks of paid leave and mothers facing 13 weeks of unpaid leave. Many families are forced to rely on savings or credit cards to get through the initial months of parenthood. Additionally, the cost of housing has become a significant barrier, with the average one-bedroom home in England now requiring 47% of a woman’s median earnings. This has pushed the most economically viable age for having children into the late 30s, years after peak fertility. These economic pressures are further exacerbated by a decade of austerity measures, which have cut funding for social programs like Sure Start centers, leaving many families without vital support.
The consequences of these trends extend beyond individual families, with profound implications for the nation’s future. If fertility rates continue to decline, the UK could face population decline, mirroring the experiences of countries like Japan and South Korea. In Japan, rural areas are emptying out as younger workers move to cities, leaving behind collapsing property values and shrinking communities. South Korea, with the world’s lowest fertility rate of 0.72 in 2023, offers a stark warning of what the UK could face if it continues on its current trajectory. Sojung Lim, a population expert, notes that both countries share similar challenges, including deteriorating economic conditions, high house prices, and inflexible workplace cultures. She emphasizes the need for collective action to address these issues, as the rapid pace of fertility decline may be too overwhelming for individual societies to reverse.
In conclusion, Britain’s declining fertility rate is not just a demographic challenge but a societal one, driven by a combination of economic hardship, changing cultural norms, and inadequate policy support. While many young people are choosing not to have children due to feelings of overwhelm and uncertainty, others are being forced to abandon their dreams of parenthood due to financial constraints. The stakes are high, with implications for everything from public finances to the sustainability of rural communities. To address this crisis, experts call for bold policy changes, including more generous parental leave, affordable childcare, and investments in social programs. Without such efforts, the UK risks a future marked by economic strain, shrinking communities, and a workforce ill-equipped to support its aging population. The time to act is now, as the challenges posed by falling fertility rates will only intensify if left unaddressed.
